Breaking Down the Paths for the Real College Playoff Contenders

Among the more chaotic regular seasons in recent memory sends us into the home stretch with a murky College Football Playoff picture. Just two undefeated teams remain, and a host of three-loss teams have resurrected their postseason prospects amid the madness.

Hurdles remain for every team in the Playoff mix, including the 10 best positioned to control their fates.

Alabama

The Crimson Tide’s emphatic win at LSU gives them a pair of blowout wins against highly ranked SEC opponents, paired with the early-season romp against Kentucky. With LSU marking the end of a gauntlet that also included losses to Georgia and Tennessee, Alabama heads into a closing stretch at Vanderbilt before home games against FCS opponent Chattanooga and rival Auburn.

The three-game slate is among the more manageable any contender plays in the coming weeks, though Auburn’s win over Georgia suggests the Tigers can pull off another shake-up — and that’s before considering the surprises that are often inherent with the Iron Bowl.

Boise State

As the only ranked Group of Six team in the first Playoff poll reveal, Boise State is the clear front-runner for the automatic bid. Pac-12 Conference counterpart Oregon State’s two-game swoon since its bye week takes a lot of the luster off of a matchup that just a few weeks ago looked like it had the potential to be a de facto Playoff play-in.

Still, the talented Beavers proved themselves threats against Big 12 Playoff hopefuls Houston and Texas Tech. After barely escaping against Texas State, Boise State is in no position to let up against the remaining schedule.

Georgia

The presumptive No. 1 in the Nov. 10 Playoff rankings scored perhaps the most impressive win of any championship hopeful so far this season with its 42-7 blowout of then-No. 10 Ole Miss. On the flipside, Georgia also has one of the more quizzical losses among Playoff favorites with its 27-24 home setback against Auburn less than a month ago.

The Bulldogs’ loss to the Tigers serves as reminder that no matchup can be penciled in ahead of time, especially in a season as turbulent as this. Suddenly surging South Carolina should present a challenge when Georgia visits Columbia in the penultimate regular-season Saturday, and the still to-be-decided SEC Championship Game could determine the Bulldogs’ seeding.

Indiana

Reigning national champion Indiana has played four straight games decided by seven points or fewer, including back-to-back overtime decisions vs. Michigan and Minnesota.

The Hoosiers continued offensive struggles have left them walking a tightrope. That they have escaped in all but the loss to Ohio State does provide some margin of error with rejuvenated Southern California visiting on Nov. 14, but a slip-up that prevents Indiana from reaching the Big Ten Championship Game would damage its seeding prospects.

Miami

Miami’s near-miss comeback attempt at Notre Dame will knock the Hurricanes from No. 1, but they are not yet in any danger as far as Playoff contention. Quarterback Darian Mensah seemed to found his rhythm after a tough first half sans standout receiver Malachi Toney, who Miami will be without for the remainder of the regular season.

The Hurricanes finish with three straight home games in ACC play, and presumably an ACC Championship Game contest. Their slate is manageable, but also provides little room for upward mobility with regard to seeding.

Notre Dame

Despite a multitude of injuries to its defense, Notre Dame answered the bell in a must-win game for its Playoff prospects.

Still, with no conference championship game to bolster its resume and none of its three remaining opponents ranked in the Top 25, the Fighting Irish’s remaining docket is bereft of further potential resume wins. Another loss may doom Notre Dame to miss the field for a second straight season, so each Saturday remains must-win territory.

Tennessee

Lopsided wins over Alabama and Kentucky have Tennessee well-positioned for an at-large berth into the Playoff — provided the Volunteers navigate the remainder of their schedule successfully.

Lane Kiffin’s return to Knoxville, this time as head coach at LSU, looms large on Nov. 21. If the Tigers can rebound from their loss to Alabama with a win over Texas, they’ll be playing for their Playoff lives when they visit on Nov. 21.

Texas

Since dropping consecutive games to Oklahoma and Florida, Texas has resurrected its Playoff ambitions with three straight wins — two over ranked opponents Ole Miss and Missouri.

The Longhorns need to keep the momentum rolling into its Week 11 matchup with an LSU team coming into Austin in desperation mode.

UCLA

UCLA’s schedule has not been the most daunting, but the Bruins navigating it unscathed carries weight in a season when all but one other team has lost.

Each of UCLA’s final three games are potential land mines: As Illinois coach Bret Bielema lobbied for in Week 10, his Illini are likely to be ranked when they visit the Rose Bowl on Friday. A late-season trip to Michigan is no gimme, and the traditional rivalry showdown with USC could well be a play-in game of sorts.

Utah

Repeatedly on the cusp of the Playoff during the four-team era, Utah looks poised to finally break through in its first season under coach Morgan Scalley. The Utes’ win over rival BYU puts them in the driver’s seat of the Big 12.

However, they face a massive trap game in Week 11 when the Utes visit an Arizona team that is undefeated at home.